US ‘War on Terror’ Has Not Weakened al Qaeda, Says Global Poll

Backgrounder

The Americas

Brazil

Most Brazilians share the view of other global publics that the US-led ’war on terror‘ has not made al Qaeda weaker. A relatively modest majority have negative feelings about al Qaeda, while a significant number say they have mixed feelings or do not answer.

• Most Brazilians believe that the ‘war on terror’ has made al Qaeda stronger (34%) or has had no effect (28%), rather than making it weaker (9%).
• Brazilians see al Qaeda negatively (53%), while one-quarter (24%) say they have mixed feelings about al Qaeda and just 2 per cent feel positively.
• Fifty-two per cent say that neither side is winning in the conflict between the United States and al Qaeda, with very small numbers believing that either al Qaeda (12%) or the United States (10%) is prevailing.

Canada

Canadians generally reject the idea that the US-led ‘war on terror’ has made al Qaeda weaker and have the second-largest number saying it has had no effect. Canadians are also among the publics with the largest numbers saying that neither side is winning in the conflict.

• Canadians most frequently say that the US-led ’war on terror‘ has had no effect on al Qaeda (38%) or has made it stronger (32%), with only 15 per cent believing it has made it weaker.
• More than seven in ten  (71%) have negative feelings about al Qaeda, while 19 per cent say their feelings are mixed and just 1 per cent have a positive view.
• Seventy per cent take the position that neither the United States or al Qaeda is winning in the conflict although more say the United States has the advantage (13%) than al Qaeda (7%).

Costa Rica

Costa Ricans share the views of most publics that al Qaeda has not been weakened by the US-led ‘war on terror,’ though more say it has had no effect than made it stronger. A majority of Costa Ricans say they do not think either side is winning in the conflict between the United States and al Qaeda.   

• Costa Ricans most commonly say that the ’war on terror‘ has had no effect on al Qaeda (36%) or made it stronger (27%), while 22 per cent say that it has made it weaker.
• More than two-thirds (68%) say that they have negative feelings about al Qaeda, followed by 13 per cent that say their feelings are mixed and 6 per cent who have positive feelings.
• Fifty-six per cent believe that neither the United States or al Qaeda is winning in the conflict, although more say that the United States is winning (18%) than say al Qaeda has the advantage (12%).

Mexico

Together with the French, Mexicans have the highest number (nearly half) saying that the US-led ‘war on terror’ has made al Qaeda stronger, and the largest number rejecting the idea that it has weakened al Qaeda. They also have the second, again together with the French, largest majority that says neither the United States or al Qaeda is winning in the conflict. Although a majority says they have negative feelings about al Qaeda, they also have an unusually high three in ten with mixed or positive feelings.   

• Mexicans predominantly say that the US-led ’war on terror‘ has made al Qaeda stronger (48%) or had no effect (33%), while very few say that it has made al Qaeda weaker (8%).
• Sixty-one per cent have negative feelings about al Qaeda, while three in ten say they have mixed feelings (26%) or positive feelings (4%).
• A very large 73 per cent says that neither the United States nor al Qaeda is winning the conflict between them, and very small numbers say that the United States (9%) or al Qaeda (8%) has the advantage.

Panama

Like most people, Panamanians tend to believe that the ‘war on terror’ has either made al Qaeda stronger or had no effect. The most common view is that neither the United States or al Qaeda has the advantage in the conflict.

• Panamanians predominantly believe that the ’war on terror‘ has either made al Qaeda stronger (28%) or has had no effect (26%), while 21 per cent say that it has made al Qaeda weaker.  A quarter do not answer.
• Fifty-seven per cent express negative feelings about al Qaeda, significantly more than those who say they have mixed (16%) or positive feelings (7%).
• Asked whether the United States or al Qaeda is prevailing in the conflict between them, Panamanians most commonly say neither side is winning (47%), while 16 per cent believe the United States has the advantage and 11 per cent say al Qaeda is winning.

USA

Americans share the views of their global counterparts that the US-led ‘war on terror’ has not succeeded in making al Qaeda weaker, and one in three even think that it has made al Qaeda stronger. A majority of Americans also agrees that neither side is winning in the conflict between the United States and al Qaeda, though more than three times as many say the United States is prevailing than those who say al Qaeda has the advantage. Americans are also among the largest majorities with negative feelings about al Qaeda, but one in ten have mixed or positive feelings.

• Americans predominantly agree that the US-led ’war on terror‘ has made al Qaeda stronger (33%) or has had no effect (26%), rather than saying it has made al Qaeda weaker (34%).
• An overwhelming 84 per cent say they have negative feelings about al Qaeda, although 9 per cent say their feelings are mixed and 2 per cent say they have positive feelings.
• Americans most commonly say that neither the United States or al Qaeda is winning in the conflict between them (56%), although more believe the United States is winning (31%) than say al Qaeda has the advantage (8%).

Europe

France

France, along with Mexico, has the largest number (approximately half) saying that al Qaeda has been strengthened by America’s ‘war on terror’ and the smallest number saying that it has been weakened. The French are also the third-largest majority with negative views of al Qaeda, and among the largest majorities that believe neither side is winning the conflict.

• Forty-eight per cent of the French say that al Qaeda has become stronger because of the ’war on terror‘ and an additional third (33%) say it has had no effect, while just 7 per cent believe al Qaeda has been weakened as a result.
• An overwhelming 85 per cent of the French say their views of al Qaeda are negative, with just 10 per cent having mixed feelings and 1 per cent having a positive view.
• Seventy-three per cent believe that neither the United States or al Qaeda is winning in the conflict, with very few saying either al Qaeda (9%) or the United States (7%) is winning.

Germany

Germans are the second-largest majority with negative feelings about al Qaeda among all publics polled. Although a majority believes that the ‘war on terror’ has either made al Qaeda stronger or has had no effect, a significant number (one in three) believe it has weakened al Qaeda. Germans are one of four publics (along with Egypt, the Philippines, and India) divided on whether the United States is prevailing in the conflict with al Qaeda or whether neither side is winning.

• Germans most commonly say the US-led ‘war on terror’ has made al Qaeda stronger (31%) or has had no effect (24%), rather than having made it weaker (34%).
• Eighty-six per cent take a negative view of al Qaeda, with a mere 9 per cent saying they have mixed feelings and just 1 per cent having a positive view.
• Asked whether the United States or al Qaeda is winning in the conflict, Germans are divided between saying neither side is winning (38%) or that the United States is prevailing (35%). Just 6 per cent believe that al Qaeda has the advantage.

United Kingdom

Very few Britons believe the US-led ’war on terror‘ has weakened al Qaeda, and are the fourth-largest majority saying it has made al Qaeda stronger or had no effect. Britons are also the largest majority saying that neither the United States nor al Qaeda is winning the conflict between them. While a majority says they have negative feelings about al Qaeda, a significant number also say they have mixed feelings, more than any other European public.

• Britons most commonly say that the ’war on terror‘ has led to al Qaeda becoming stronger (40%) or has had no effect (36%), compared to just 13 per cent that believe it has been weakened.
• Two-thirds of Britons (67%) say they have negative feelings about al Qaeda, while 22 per cent say their feelings are mixed and 4 per cent say they have positive feelings.
• Three in four (75%) agree that neither side is winning in the conflict, while 11 per cent say that the United States is winning and 5 per cent believe al Qaeda is prevailing.

Italians have the most widespread negative feelings about al Qaeda of all publics polled. They are also among the largest majorities that believe the US-led ’war on terror‘ has not succeeded in weakening al Qaeda.

• Eight in ten Italians say that the US-led ’war on terror‘ has actually made al Qaeda stronger (43%) or has had no effect (36%), rather than making it weaker (13%).
• An overwhelming number of Italians (87%) say that they have negative feelings about al Qaeda, compared to those who say their feelings are mixed (8%) or positive (1%).
• Asked whether the United States or al Qaeda is winning the conflict between them, more than seven in ten (71%) say neither side is winning, while similar numbers say either al Qaeda (11%) or the United States (10%) has the advantage.

Russia

Russians stand out in that large numbers do not take a position on key questions. But the balance of their views is fairly typical.

• Russians tend to believe that the US-led ’war on terror‘ has had no effect on al Qaeda (31%) or made it stronger (12%), while just 16 per cent believe it has made it weaker. An unusually large 41 per cent do not take a position.
• Three in five (60%) say that they have negative feelings about al Qaeda, while significantly fewer say they have mixed (10%) or positive feelings (2%).
• Asked whether al Qaeda or the United States is winning the conflict between them, Russians most commonly say neither side is winning (33%), while only 12 per cent believe the United States is winning and 8 per cent believe al Qaeda has the advantage. Nearly half (47%) do not take a position.

Middle East

Egypt

Egypt is the only country with a clear majority that has either positive or mixed feelings about al Qaeda, though a substantial minority express negative feelings. Egypt also has the second-largest number saying that al Qaeda has been weakened by the US-led ’war on terror,’ though more still say it has either made al Qaeda stronger or had no effect. Egyptians are one of four publics divided (along with Germany, the Philippines, and India) between whether the United States is winning in the conflict with al Qaeda or whether neither side is winning.

• A significant number of Egyptians (44%) believe that al Qaeda has been weakened by the US-led ’war on terror,’ but the dominant view is still that it has either had no effect (31%) or has strengthened al Qaeda (21%).
• Egyptians most commonly say that they have mixed feelings about al Qaeda (40%), although more say they have negative feelings (35%) than say their feelings are positive (20%).
• Asked whether the United States or al Qaeda is winning in their conflict, Egyptians are divided between saying neither side is winning (40%) or that the United States is winning (39%). Only 10 per cent believe that al Qaeda is winning.

Lebanon

Lebanon has the largest number in the Middle East that believe the ‘war on terror’ has strengthened al Qaeda, though this is less than a majority. The Lebanese also have the most widespread opinion among Middle Eastern publics that neither the United States nor al Qaeda is winning the conflict between them.

• The most common view among Lebanese is that the US-led ‘war on terror’ has made al Qaeda stronger (39%) or has had no effect (32%), while just 18 per cent say it has made it weaker.
• More than seven in ten (72%) have negative feelings about al Qaeda, while just 14 per cent say they have mixed feelings and 7 per cent feel positively about al Qaeda.
• Asked whether the United States or al Qaeda is winning the conflict between them, the predominant view among Lebanese is that neither side is winning (44%), although more say the United States is winning (26%) than say al Qaeda has the advantage.

Turkey

Turks are among the largest majorities with negative feelings about al Qaeda and the largest among those predominantly Muslim publics polled. The most common view among Turks is that the United States is winning in the conflict with al Qaeda, one of three publics for whom this is the case, though this is not a majority position.

• Approximately half of Turks say the US-led ’war on terror‘ has either made al Qaeda stronger (31%) or had no effect (18%), although one in three (32%) believe it has made al Qaeda weaker.
• A very large 82 per cent say they have negative views of al Qaeda, with very few saying they have mixed (8%) or positive feelings (2%).
• Approximately as many Turks see the United States winning in the conflict with al Qaeda (38%), as see neither side winning (29%) or see Qaeda winning (11%).

UAE

Like other publics in the Middle East, very few Emiratis believe that the ’war on terror‘ has weakened al Qaeda and tend to believe that it has either strengthened al Qaeda or had no effect. Emiratis also agree that neither side has the advantage in the conflict between the United States and al Qaeda.

• Among Emiratis, half believe that the US-led ’war on terror‘ has made al Qaeda stronger (27%) or has had no effect (23%), while just 17 per cent believe it has weakened al Qaeda.
• Emiratis most commonly say that neither side is winning in the conflict between the United States and al Qaeda (29%), and equal numbers say that the United States (16%) or al Qaeda (16%) has the advantage.

AFRICA

Kenya

Kenya is the only country with a majority that believes the US-led ’war on terror‘ has made al Qaeda weaker. They also have the largest number saying that the United States is winning in the conflict with al Qaeda. However, while a majority of Kenyans has negative feelings about al Qaeda, a significant number say they have mixed or positive feelings.

• Among Kenyans, the majority view is that the US-led ’war on terror‘ has made al Qaeda weaker (58%), compared to just 16 per cent that believe it has become stronger or 15 per cent that believe it has had no effect.
• Two-thirds (67%) have negative feelings toward al Qaeda, while 15 per cent say their feelings are mixed and 14 per cent take a positive view of al Qaeda.
• Forty-five per cent say that the United States is winning in the conflict with al Qaeda. This is the most common answer and equal to the number who either say that al Qaeda is winning (12%) or that neither side has the advantage (33%).

Nigeria

Nigeria is one of the two countries that does not have most people saying that the United States has failed to weaken al Qaeda. Rather, views are divided between those who believe the US has weakened al Qaeda and those who either believe it has had no effect or strengthened it. Nigerians also are one of the few publics where the most common view is that the US is winning in the conflict with al Qaeda. At the same time, Nigeria has one of the largest minorities saying they have either positive or mixed feelings about al Qaeda.

• Nigerians have somewhat mixed feelings about what effect the US-led ’war on terror‘ has had on al Qaeda: 37 per cent say it has made it weaker, while 22 per cent believe it has made it stronger and 18 per cent believe it has had no effect.
• Nigerians most commonly say they have negative feelings about al Qaeda (42%), but a significant number say they view al Qaeda positively (25%) or have mixed feelings (12%).
• Asked whether the United States or al Qaeda is winning in the conflict between them, Nigerians most commonly say the United States has the advantage (34%), while 25 per cent say neither side is winning and just 17 per cent believe al Qaeda is winning.

Asia/Pacific

Australia

Australians have one of the largest numbers among all publics polled saying the US-led ’war on terror‘ has made al Qaeda stronger. They are also among the publics where there is a widespread belief that neither side is winning in the conflict between the United States and al Qaeda.

• Australians most commonly say that the US-led ’war on terror‘ has made al Qaeda stronger (41%), while only 17 per cent say it has made al Qaeda weaker and 31 per cent believe it has had no effect.
• Seventy-six per cent have a negative view of al Qaeda, while 16 per cent say their feelings are mixed and just 2 per cent say their feelings are positive.
• Seven in ten (70%) in Australia say that neither al Qaeda nor the United States is winning in the conflict between them, although slightly more say the United States is winning (14%) than al Qaeda (8%).

China

Half of Chinese say they view al Qaeda negatively, while a significant number say they have mixed or positive feelings and many decline to take a position. The Chinese also share the view of most other global publics that the US-led ’war on terror‘ has failed to weaken al Qaeda, instead having no effect or making it stronger.

• The dominant view in China is that al Qaeda has not been weakened by the ’war on terror‘ but rather it has had no effect (29%) or made it stronger (23%). Only one quarter (25%) believe it has made it weaker.
• Nearly half (48%) say they have negative feelings about al Qaeda, while 26 per cent say their feelings are mixed and 5 per cent have positive feelings (21% decline to offer an opinion).
• Asked whether the United States or al Qaeda is winning in the conflict, the Chinese most commonly say neither side is winning (45%), followed by 22 per cent that say the United States is winning and just 5 per cent that say al Qaeda is winning.

India

Indians tend to agree that the ’war on terror‘ has failed in making al Qaeda weaker, although many Indians do not express an opinion. Similarly, Indians are divided on whether the United States is winning in the conflict with al Qaeda or whether neither side is winning, but nearly half do not take a position. While the most common view of al Qaeda is negative, India is one of the countries with the smallest numbers expressing this view.

• Indians tend to say the US-led ’war on terror‘ has not made al Qaeda weaker: 27 per cent believe al Qaeda has been weakened, compared to 19 per cent that say it has had no effect and 16 per cent that believe it has made it stronger (38% decline to offer an opinion).
• Just under half of Indians say they have a negative view of al Qaeda (44%), while a quarter say their feelings are either mixed (13%) or positive (11%).
• Asked whether the United States or al Qaeda is winning in the conflict, feelings are largely mixed, with 21 per cent saying the United States is winning or that neither side is winning (21%), while just 10 per cent say al Qaeda is prevailing (48% do not take a position).

Indonesia

Indonesia is one of the few countries where more have either positive or mixed feelings about al Qaeda than have negative feelings. Very few believe that the US-led ‘war on terror’ has made al Qaeda weaker.

• Indonesians most commonly say that the ’war on terror‘ has either had no effect on al Qaeda (33%) or made it stronger (24%), while just 12 per cent believe it has made it weaker (31% decline to answer).
• While 35 per cent of Indonesians have negative views of al Qaeda, four in ten have mixed (23%) or positive (16%) feelings.
• Indonesians tend to say neither the United States nor al Qaeda is winning in the current conflict (36%), compared to 18 per cent that feel the United States is winning and 14 per cent that believe al Qaeda has the advantage (32% do not take a position).

Pakistan

Pakistanis are one of only two publics (along with Egypt) where negative views of al Qaeda are not the most common response and where mixed or positive views of al Qaeda far outweigh negative views. They also have the largest number that say al Qaeda is winning in the conflict between the United States and al Qaeda, although the most common view is that neither side is winning.

• Pakistanis most commonly take the position that the US-led ‘war on terror’ has had no effect on al Qaeda (30%) or has made it stronger (24%), as compared to just 13 per cent that believe it has weakened al Qaeda (33% do not take a position).
• Twenty-two per cent of Pakistanis say they have mixed feelings about al Qaeda, as compared to those who say they have positive (19%) or negative (19%) feelings. However, 40 per cent decline to answer the question.
• Asked whether the United States or al Qaeda is winning the conflict, Pakistanis most commonly say neither side is winning (24%), but a greater number believe that al Qaeda is winning (21%) than believe the United States has the advantage (11%). However, 44 per cent decline to express an opinion.

Philippines

Given that in many polls Filipinos tend to have relatively positive views of the United States, it is striking that the Philippines is one of only four countries polled where more people have either mixed or positive feelings toward al Qaeda than have negative feelings. Filipinos are one of the few publics where a large number believe that the United States is winning in the conflict with al Qaeda, as many as believe that neither side is winning.

• Filipinos most commonly say that the ’war on terror‘ has had no effect on al Qaeda (40%) or has made it stronger (19%), while just 21 per cent believe that it has been weakened.
• The most common view of al Qaeda is negative (42%), but an even larger number (48%) have either mixed (33%) or positive (15%) views.
• Filipinos are divided on whether the United States is winning in the conflict with al Qaeda (39%) or if neither side is winning (39%)—only 2 per cent believe al Qaeda is winning.